Three variables explain most of the mid-term price moves. First, CO2 prices (EUA) — PGE has the largest coal exposure in the Polish sector; every rise in allowance prices directly burdens EBITDA. Second, regulatory decisions by URE and the Ministry of State Assets — retail price caps, distribution tariffs and sector taxes can change the valuation by ten percent or more in a short period. Third, progress in offshore wind (Baltica 2 and 3) — the foundation of PGE's transition; every delay or budget overrun hits the multiple. Secondary but material: gas and hard-coal prices (operating cost impact), the EUR/PLN rate (FX liabilities), EU climate policy and the dividend decision. An investor's first glance at PGE should be EUA and regulatory policy — these two variables shape most of the valuation.